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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.

CBJ winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR1601218226
CBJ090938326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:05CARErik ColeAssists: Matt Cullen · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P3 0:50CBJNikita FilatovAssists: Derek Dorsett, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:55CBJJared BollAssists: Anton Stralman, Steve Mason · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P3 3:31CBJRick NashGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P3 12:09CARTim GleasonAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Zach Boychuk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 17:18CARJoni Pitkanen: Closing hand on puck2 min
  2. P1 19:38CBJR.J. Umberger: Interference2 min
  3. P1 19:49CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 13:47CBJRostislav Klesla: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 17:48CARTuomo Ruutu: Holding2 min
  6. P3 4:21CBJRaffi Torres: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 8:03CARJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 10:08CBJRostislav Klesla: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Yelle won the faceoff against Pahlsson
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARCBJ
26Shots on goal26
2.1Expected goals2.1
58Shot attempts44
32Faceoffs won29
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
24Hits19
12Blocked shots20
2Giveaways6
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.1 xGCAR 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #670 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.44 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.

CBJ winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).