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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 3

Away

Dallas Stars

2

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.

MIN winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0421007221
MIN21719011337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:46MINCal ClutterbuckSHAssists: Shane Hnidy · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:58MINMikko KoivuAssists: Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 3:33DALLoui ErikssonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:51DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Brad Richards, Mike Ribeiro · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:12MINMarek ZidlickyGWGAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Chuck Kobasew · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 0:15DALMark Fistric: Delaying game2 min
  2. P1 2:23DALLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 8:49MINBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 8:49MINBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 3:26MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 14:43MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:42MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min
  8. P2 18:42DALBrenden Morrow: Diving2 min
  9. P2 19:18DALFabian Brunnstrom: Abuse of officials2 min
  10. P3 5:12MINEric Belanger: Elbowing2 min
  11. P3 6:00DALMike Modano: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 12:09DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 15:01MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Modano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALMIN
21Shots on goal37
1.4Expected goals2.8
43Shot attempts59
30Faceoffs won33
6Power plays5
12Penalty minutes14
28Hits34
11Blocked shots10
2Giveaways1
0Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.8 xGDAL 1.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #439 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.43 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.

MIN winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).