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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

New York Rangers 1, Calgary Flames 3

Away

New York Rangers

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.

CGY winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR19011013133
CGY191815322

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:56CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Adam Pardy, Nigel Dawes · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:16NYRDan GirardiAssists: Vinny Prospal, Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:47CGYJarome IginlaPPGWGAssists: Nigel Dawes, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:35CGYRene BourqueAssists: Nigel Dawes, Daymond Langkow · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 3:23NYREnver Lisin: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 4:53NYRWade Redden: Interference2 min
  3. P2 11:20CGYDavid Moss: Interference2 min
  4. P2 15:32CGYRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 15:32NYRAles Kotalik: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 15:32NYRAles Kotalik: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 18:47CGYDaymond Langkow: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 1:24CGYDavid Moss: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRCGY
33Shots on goal22
2.8Expected goals3.3
58Shot attempts54
20Faceoffs won32
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
15Hits19
15Blocked shots12
5Giveaways15
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.3 xGNYR 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #983 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.02 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.

CGY winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).