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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Pittsburgh Penguins 0, San Jose Sharks 5

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

0

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.

SJS winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT03012010025
SJS21328114535

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:27SJSJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Scott Nichol, Jed Ortmeyer · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:04SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Manny Malhotra · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:41SJSDan BoyleAssists: Jed Ortmeyer, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P2 3:31SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.43 xG0–4
  5. P3 9:51SJSManny MalhotraPPAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.16 xG0–5
Penalties (21)
  1. P1 0:52PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 6:23PITCraig Adams: Elbowing2 min
  3. P1 8:51SJSRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 15:40PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min · PPG
  5. P1 16:45PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 16:45SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 1:24SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
  8. P2 1:24PITMatt Cooke: Diving2 min
  9. P2 6:07PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 6:46SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
  11. P2 13:48SJSDouglas Murray: Holding2 min
  12. P2 16:59SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 16:59PITEric Godard: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 7:59PITJay McKee: Roughing2 min · PPG
  15. P3 7:59PITJay McKee: Instigator2 min
  16. P3 7:59PITJay McKee: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 7:59PITJay McKee: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 7:59SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 11:38SJSDany Heatley: Slashing2 min
  20. P3 16:06SJSJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
  21. P3 16:06PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITSJS
25Shots on goal35
2.6Expected goals4.7
57Shot attempts65
28Faceoffs won28
4Power plays6
41Penalty minutes27
25Hits19
19Blocked shots13
9Giveaways7
11Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 4.7 xGPIT 2.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1188 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.53 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.

SJS winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).