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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 8, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

St. Louis Blues 2, Atlanta Thrashers 3 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL0718113040232
ATL0809220032340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 6:55STLAndy McDonaldAssists: David Perron, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P3 7:08STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Eric Brewer, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.38 xG2–0
  3. P3 12:59ATLToby EnstromAssists: Colby Armstrong, Marty Reasoner · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P3 16:29ATLRon HainseyAssists: Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. ATL Rich Peverley scored
  2. 2. STL Andy McDonald stopped
  3. 3. ATL Vyacheslav Kozlov scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 4:22STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 8:33STLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 15:31ATLChristoph Schubert: Interference2 min
  4. P1 19:43ATLZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
  5. P2 0:40ATLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
  6. P2 9:10STLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 12:47STLT.J. Oshie: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  8. P2 17:00STLBrad Winchester: Holding2 min
  9. P3 5:44ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 14:03STLErik Johnson: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against McDonald
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLATL
32Shots on goal40
3.3Expected goals3.3
54Shot attempts70
35Faceoffs won24
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
7Hits13
19Blocked shots9
3Giveaways6
6Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.3 xGSTL 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #233 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.94 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).