Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 8, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Edmonton Oilers 5, Colorado Avalanche 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

5

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.

COL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM31407211532
COL11312014337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:47EDMMike ComriePPAssists: Sam Gagner, Dustin Penner · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:00COLMarek SvatosAssists: Kyle Quincey, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:48EDMTom GilbertPPAssists: Robert Nilsson, Ryan Potulny · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P1 19:02EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P2 4:56COLT.J. HensickAssists: Brett Clark, Wojtek Wolski · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P3 4:44EDMRyan PotulnyPPGWGAssists: Denis Grebeshkov, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
  7. P3 7:27COLDavid JonesAssists: Cody McLeod, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–3
  8. P3 16:40EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Liam Reddox, Steve Staios · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:24COLMarek Svatos: Boarding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:35EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 6:39COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 6:39EDMJason Strudwick: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 13:40COLRyan Wilson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  6. P1 18:41COLChris Stewart: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P1 19:48COLMarek Svatos: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 1:58EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 9:09EDMMike Comrie: Cross checking2 min
  10. P2 16:48EDMZack Stortini: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 4:03COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min · PPG
  12. P3 10:42COLPhilippe Dupuis: Charging2 min
  13. P3 14:31COLMarek Svatos: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCOL
32Shots on goal37
2.5Expected goals3.7
49Shot attempts67
30Faceoffs won34
7Power plays4
10Penalty minutes16
15Hits9
20Blocked shots12
5Giveaways4
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.7 xGEDM 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #309 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.66 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.

COL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).