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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 10, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Minnesota Wild 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

Minnesota Wild

5

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.

TOR winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN1143918531
TOR11407118239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:42MINMartin HavlatPPAssists: Shane Hnidy · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:08TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Ian White, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:44MINMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Brent Burns, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 17:29MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Antti Miettinen, Andrew Brunette · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P2 17:55MINGreg ZanonAssists: Mikko Koivu, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
  6. P3 18:05TORPhil KesselAssists: Jeff Finger, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
  7. P3 19:57MINOwen NolanSHUnassisted · Other, 0.06 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 4:52TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 16:07TORRickard Wallin: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:57TORColton Orr: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:10TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 9:12MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 12:46MINJames Sheppard: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 18:51MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 19:03MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Mitchell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINTOR
31Shots on goal39
2.5Expected goals2.5
50Shot attempts71
24Faceoffs won28
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
20Hits19
19Blocked shots14
10Giveaways15
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.5 xGMIN 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #569 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.12 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.

TOR winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).