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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 10, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Calgary Flames 1, Montréal Canadiens 0

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

MTL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY11209010131
MTL090708024

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:55CGYJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 0:59MTLPaul Mara: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:38CGYAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 11:38CGYAdam Pardy: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 11:38MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 11:38MTLMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
  6. P1 12:28CGYRene Bourque: High sticking2 min
  7. P1 14:56CGYEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 14:56MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
  9. P1 15:55MTLMaxim Lapierre: Slashing2 min
  10. P1 18:35CGYJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
  11. P2 3:58MTLRyan White: High sticking2 min
  12. P2 7:03MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 7:03CGYBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 10:34MTLPaul Mara: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 7:38MTLJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 12:31CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
  17. P3 17:50MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackMTL attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYMTL
31Shots on goal24
2.5Expected goals1.7
63Shot attempts43
29Faceoffs won28
6Power plays3
20Penalty minutes26
21Hits26
10Blocked shots13
17Giveaways18
3Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 1.7 xGCGY 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1094 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.83 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

MTL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).