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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 10, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Edmonton Oilers 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.

OTT winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
EDM2901519011334
OTT181619022425

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:33EDMDustin PennerAssists: Steve Staios, Patrick O'Sullivan · Slap, 0.41 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:30OTTJonathan CheechooAssists: Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:24EDMEthan MoreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P2 3:16OTTNick FolignoAssists: Ryan Shannon, Matt Carkner · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:11OTTChris NeilAssists: Alexandre Picard, Jarkko Ruutu · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P3 15:17EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Denis Grebeshkov, Steve Staios · Tip-in, 0.53 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan scored
  2. 2. OTT Alex Kovalev scored
  3. 3. EDM Dustin Penner stopped
  4. 4. OTT Daniel Alfredsson stopped
  5. 5. EDM Mike Comrie stopped
  6. 6. OTT Jason Spezza scored
Penalties (3)
  1. P2 12:22OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
  2. P3 13:11OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
  3. P3 13:11EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Potulny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMOTT
34Shots on goal25
3.7Expected goals2.3
58Shot attempts51
28Faceoffs won26
1Power plays0
2Penalty minutes4
20Hits23
17Blocked shots13
13Giveaways13
9Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.3 xGEDM 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #247 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.07 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.

OTT winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).