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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 10, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Vancouver Canucks 1, St. Louis Blues 6

Away

Vancouver Canucks

1

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.

STL winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN01101012123
STL4131918630

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:18STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:42STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Brad Boyes, Barret Jackman · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P1 6:53STLErik JohnsonAssists: Darryl Sydor, David Backes · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
  4. P1 7:36STLDavid PerronAssists: Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.05 xG0–4
  5. P2 18:45STLBrad BoyesPPAssists: Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.06 xG0–5
  6. P3 1:02VANHenrik SedinAssists: Ryan Kesler · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–5
  7. P3 15:53STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Erik Johnson, T.J. Oshie · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–6
Penalties (23)
  1. P1 0:34STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:34VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 0:34VANKevin Bieksa: Instigator2 min
  4. P1 0:34VANKevin Bieksa: Misconduct10 min
  5. P1 0:34STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 15:08VANAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
  7. P1 18:53STLJay McClement: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 1:19STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 16:40STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 16:40VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min · PPG
  11. P2 18:02VANMikael Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 3:45STLKeith Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 7:00VANRyan Johnson: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 9:45STLB.J. Crombeen: Holding2 min
  15. P3 9:45VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 9:45STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 11:52VANTanner Glass: Cross checking2 min
  18. P3 15:04STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 15:04VANDarcy Hordichuk: Instigator2 min · PPG
  20. P3 15:04VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  21. P3 15:04VANDarcy Hordichuk: Game misconduct10 min
  22. P3 15:53VANShane O'Brien: Slashing2 min
  23. P3 19:28VANMatt Pettinger: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANSTL
23Shots on goal30
2.4Expected goals2.7
51Shot attempts48
30Faceoffs won26
4Power plays7
56Penalty minutes30
19Hits20
10Blocked shots12
5Giveaways6
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.7 xGVAN 2.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1069 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.46 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.

STL winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).