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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 10, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Nashville Predators 3, San Jose Sharks 4

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.

SJS winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH11114111326
SJS1817214429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:01SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:20NSHMike SantorelliAssists: Martin Erat, Andreas Thuresson · Backhand, 0.35 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:33SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Brad Staubitz, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:49NSHMarcel GocAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 9:29NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
  6. P3 13:26SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
  7. P3 19:00SJSDan BoyleGWGAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
  1. P2 6:32SJSDerek Joslin: Cross checking2 min
  2. P3 3:13SJSRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min
  3. P3 13:50NSHCody Franson: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Marleau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHSJS
26Shots on goal29
3.6Expected goals4.3
52Shot attempts55
20Faceoffs won32
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes4
19Hits16
12Blocked shots10
9Giveaways15
11Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 4.3 xGNSH 3.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #159 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.22 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.

SJS winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).