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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 11, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Edmonton Oilers 1, Buffalo Sabres 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

1

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

BUF winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM0811407129
BUF1141517326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:31BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
  2. P2 7:34BUFSteve MontadorGWGAssists: Tim Connolly, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 17:49EDMPatrick O'SullivanPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:41BUFJochen HechtENUnassisted · Snap, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:07BUFTim Kennedy: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 17:46EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 8:20BUFThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 10:29EDMSteve Staios: Holding2 min
  5. P2 10:29BUFThomas Vanek: Diving2 min
  6. P2 12:14BUFClarke MacArthur: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 16:11BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 16:48BUFPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min
  9. P3 3:48EDMSteve Staios: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 5:47BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 9:37EDMEthan Moreau: Holding the stick2 min
  12. P3 12:18EDMTom Gilbert: Interference2 min
  13. P3 13:45BUFClarke MacArthur: Boarding5 min
  14. P3 13:45BUFClarke MacArthur: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Gagner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMBUF
29Shots on goal26
2.0Expected goals3.2
46Shot attempts58
19Faceoffs won36
7Power plays4
10Penalty minutes29
11Hits5
19Blocked shots8
10Giveaways10
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.2 xGEDM 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 19/100 · #986 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.99 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

BUF winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).