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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 11, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Anaheim Ducks 1, New Jersey Devils 3

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA08112012132
NJD182908325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:38NJDJamie LangenbrunnerAssists: Andy Greene, Zach Parise · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:25ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:52NJDDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:47NJDZach PariseSHAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Colin White · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 11:29ANARyan Whitney: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 12:04NJDDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 14:19NJDDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 5:00NJDNiclas Bergfors: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 19:00NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 7:02NJDDavid Clarkson: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P3 12:26ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
  8. P3 13:28ANAScott Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 16:16NJDMike Mottau: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Zubrus
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANANJD
32Shots on goal25
1.8Expected goals1.9
44Shot attempts34
24Faceoffs won19
6Power plays3
6Penalty minutes12
25Hits17
3Blocked shots7
4Giveaways6
4Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.9 xGANA 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #995 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.

NJD winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).