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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 11, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

New York Islanders 4, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)

Away

New York Islanders

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.

WSH winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NYI31208110011431
WSH213214010042541

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:08WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 1:02NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
  3. P1 5:10NYIMark StreitAssists: Bruno Gervais, Rob Schremp · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P1 6:54NYISean BergenheimUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P1 13:42WSHTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
  6. P2 5:35WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Mike Green · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
  7. P2 16:46WSHEric FehrAssists: Chris Clark, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–4
  8. P3 17:52NYITrent HunterPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
  2. 2. NYI Jeff Tambellini scored
  3. 3. WSH Alexander Semin scored
  4. 4. NYI John Tavares stopped
  5. 5. WSH Brendan Morrison stopped
  6. 6. NYI Rob Schremp stopped
  7. 7. WSH Tomas Fleischmann stopped
  8. 8. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
  9. 9. WSH Brooks Laich stopped
  10. 10. NYI Matt Moulson stopped
  11. 11. WSH Mathieu Perreault stopped
  12. 12. NYI Richard Park stopped
  13. 13. WSH Mike Green stopped
  14. 14. NYI Sean Bergenheim stopped
  15. 15. WSH Mike Knuble stopped
  16. 16. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
  17. 17. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
  18. 18. NYI Trent Hunter stopped
  19. 19. WSH Matt Bradley stopped
  20. 20. NYI Jon Sim stopped
  21. 21. WSH Chris Clark scored
  22. 22. NYI Mark Streit stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 12:14NYIJon Sim: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 0:22NYITim Jackman: Interference2 min
  3. P2 4:19NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P3 0:16WSHBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 15:10WSHDavid Steckel: Holding2 min
  6. P3 17:14WSHMilan Jurcina: Boarding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Morrison
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIWSH
31Shots on goal41
2.5Expected goals3.4
56Shot attempts77
30Faceoffs won39
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
20Hits15
27Blocked shots17
12Giveaways11
5Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.4 xGNYI 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #50 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.44 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.

WSH winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).