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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·Madison Square Garden, New York

Atlanta Thrashers 5, New York Rangers 3

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

5

Final

Home

New York Rangers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 50% of the time.

NYR winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL11031215527
NYR18110118336

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:19ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Evander Kane, Rich Peverley · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:08NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:02ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
  4. P2 15:28NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Ales Kotalik · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P2 17:41ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Todd White · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P2 18:06ATLEvander KaneGWGAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
  7. P3 6:18NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Ales Kotalik, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–3
  8. P3 19:47ATLMaxim AfinogenovENAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–3
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 1:52NYRSean Avery: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 4:44NYRDonald Brashear: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:44ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 6:59NYRRyan Callahan: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 6:59ATLZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 11:12ATLChristoph Schubert: Hooking2 min
  7. P1 13:56NYRBrian Boyle: High sticking2 min
  8. P1 14:16ATLTodd White: High sticking2 min
  9. P1 15:20NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 3:49NYRMichael Del Zotto: Slashing2 min · PPG
  11. P2 14:54ATLColby Armstrong: Tripping2 min · PPG
  12. P2 17:13NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
  13. P3 0:38ATLZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 10:12ATLChristoph Schubert: Holding2 min
  15. P3 11:30ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
  16. P3 11:30NYRMichael Del Zotto: Diving2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Prospal won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLNYR
27Shots on goal36
3.3Expected goals3.3
52Shot attempts55
35Faceoffs won35
5Power plays4
22Penalty minutes22
21Hits25
7Blocked shots14
1Giveaways4
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.3 xGATL 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 79/100 · #219 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 50% of the time.

NYR winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).