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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

1

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.

PHI winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0511008123
PHI04210313527

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 9:34PHIBlair BettsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Chris Pronger · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:59OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Alex Kovalev, Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:23PHIJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:56PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Jeff Carter, Kimmo Timonen · Slap, 0.37 xG1–3
  5. P3 11:47PHIDarroll PoweAssists: Arron Asham, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
  6. P3 13:39PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 6:17OTTBrian Lee: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 4:05OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 4:05PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 7:39OTTChris Kelly: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 14:47PHIBlair Betts: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 16:03OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 4:48OTTMatt Carkner: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Betts won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTPHI
23Shots on goal27
1.2Expected goals2.7
46Shot attempts53
23Faceoffs won31
1Power plays4
13Penalty minutes7
9Hits18
18Blocked shots11
12Giveaways8
6Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.7 xGOTT 1.2 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #860 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.

PHI winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).