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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

New Jersey Devils 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1

Away

New Jersey Devils

4

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.

PIT winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD072929425
PIT190809126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:32PITRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Bourque · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:50NJDNiclas BergforsAssists: Zach Parise, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:50NJDAndy GreenePPGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:43NJDZach PariseAssists: Travis Zajac, Niclas Bergfors · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:58NJDDavid ClarksonENAssists: Bryce Salvador · Backhand, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 15:39PITMark Eaton: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 18:23NJDTim Sestito: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 19:19PITJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 17:28PITBill Guerin: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 0:00NJDTravis Zajac: Holding2 min
  6. P3 8:25NJDNiclas Bergfors: Closing hand on puck2 min
  7. P3 9:29PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDPIT
25Shots on goal26
2.6Expected goals2.3
52Shot attempts59
24Faceoffs won28
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
25Hits31
23Blocked shots13
6Giveaways10
2Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.3 xGNJD 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #829 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.

PIT winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).