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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Minnesota Wild 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)

Away

Minnesota Wild

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.

TBL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MIN11221107040334
TBL091429002422

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:53MINBenoit PouliotAssists: James Sheppard, Nick Schultz · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:47MINKim JohnssonPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P2 8:44TBLSteven StamkosSHAssists: Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:35MINOwen NolanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P3 9:17TBLSteve DownieAssists: Jeff Halpern, Mattias Ohlund · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:45TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
  2. 2. TBL Vincent Lecavalier scored
  3. 3. MIN Martin Havlat stopped
  4. 4. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 19:34MINShane Hnidy: Holding2 min
  2. P2 3:16TBLZenon Konopka: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 4:45MINBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 6:59TBLAlex Tanguay: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 15:00TBLStephane Veilleux: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 3:20TBLMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 9:59MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 12:26TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 12:26MINOwen Nolan: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 18:42MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINTBL
34Shots on goal22
2.9Expected goals1.5
55Shot attempts41
30Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
17Hits18
9Blocked shots11
10Giveaways9
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 1.5 xGMIN 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #111 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.29 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.

TBL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).