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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Vancouver Canucks 1, Detroit Red Wings 3

Away

Vancouver Canucks

1

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.

DET winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN01511106132
DET15013211329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:31DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:38VANMason RaymondPPAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Ryan Kesler · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P3 8:00DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Brad Stuart, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:04DETNiklas KronwallENAssists: Jimmy Howard · Snap, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:24VANRick Rypien: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:24DETBrad May: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:53DETBrett Lebda: Holding2 min
  4. P1 15:50VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 6:28DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 8:18DETBrad Stuart: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 9:59DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 18:37DETPatrick Eaves: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 18:37VANChristian Ehrhoff: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 19:26DETDaniel Cleary: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 10:45VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Wellwood
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANDET
32Shots on goal29
1.8Expected goals2.3
58Shot attempts57
34Faceoffs won39
5Power plays2
11Penalty minutes17
19Hits34
16Blocked shots11
13Giveaways13
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.3 xGVAN 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #885 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.13 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.

DET winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).