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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Nashville Predators 3, St. Louis Blues 1

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH01211926337
STL180707122

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:03STLBrad BoyesAssists: Erik Johnson, Andy McDonald · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:50NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P3 16:17NSHJordin TootooGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:53NSHDavid LegwandENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 5:19NSHAndreas Thuresson: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 12:06STLDarryl Sydor: Holding2 min
  3. P1 15:32NSHJordin Tootoo: Interference2 min
  4. P2 1:43STLCam Janssen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 19:07STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 19:07STLDavid Backes: Boarding5 min
  7. P2 19:07NSHFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 19:07STLDavid Backes: Game misconduct10 min
  9. P2 0:00NSHRyan Suter: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 6:12NSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Tkachuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHSTL
37Shots on goal22
4.2Expected goals1.6
66Shot attempts38
30Faceoffs won27
4Power plays3
10Penalty minutes21
15Hits12
9Blocked shots16
8Giveaways14
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 1.6 xGNSH 4.2 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #808 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.21 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).