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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Montréal Canadiens 4, Phoenix Coyotes 2

Away

Montréal Canadiens

4

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.

PHX winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL031839420
PHX071418219

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:07MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:54PHXRobert LangAssists: Radim Vrbata, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:10MTLMarc-Andre BergeronAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 6:12MTLGlen MetropolitPPGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P3 9:30PHXPaul BissonnetteAssists: Shaun Heshka, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:19MTLBrian GiontaENAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 12:19MTLMax Pacioretty: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 17:08MTLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Interference2 min
  3. P2 5:24PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:24MTLJay Leach: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 6:05PHXShane Doan: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 15:46MTLMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 3:16MTLRoman Hamrlik: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 5:04PHXMatthew Lombardi: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLPHX
20Shots on goal19
3.0Expected goals1.5
41Shot attempts50
24Faceoffs won33
2Power plays4
13Penalty minutes9
28Hits26
21Blocked shots9
1Giveaways4
7Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 1.5 xGMTL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #624 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.50 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.

PHX winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).