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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 12, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Dallas Stars 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Shootout

Home

San Jose Sharks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.

SJS winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL01009213041336
SJS09212010010232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:32SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Pavelski, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:43SJSRyane CloweUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P3 5:50DALJames NealAssists: Mike Modano, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:35DALMike ModanoAssists: James Neal, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
  2. 2. DAL James Neal stopped
  3. 3. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
  4. 4. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
  5. 5. SJS Ryan Vesce stopped
  6. 6. DAL Stephane Robidas scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 13:51SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 13:51DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 14:41DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 17:15SJSScott Nichol: Holding2 min
  5. P2 8:11DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 13:58SJSKent Huskins: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 2:36SJSScott Nichol: Diving2 min
  8. P3 2:36DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 3:46SJSDany Heatley: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P3 11:43SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 17:34DALMike Modano: Slashing2 min
  12. OT 4:11SJSKent Huskins: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Marleau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALSJS
36Shots on goal32
3.6Expected goals3.2
62Shot attempts69
25Faceoffs won35
5Power plays3
13Penalty minutes17
26Hits33
24Blocked shots14
7Giveaways8
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.2 xGDAL 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #288 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.82 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 7% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.

SJS winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).