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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 13, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Minnesota Wild 1, Washington Capitals 3

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.

WSH winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN01016014130
WSH015116210341

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:31MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Brent Burns, Kyle Brodziak · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:39WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:00WSHBrian PothierGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Eric Fehr · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:23WSHBrooks LaichENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 14:21MINNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 17:54WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 19:25WSHChris Clark: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 4:42MINAntti Miettinen: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 11:07WSHBrooks Laich: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 14:09MINNick Schultz: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINWSH
30Shots on goal41
2.6Expected goals5.6
51Shot attempts69
28Faceoffs won34
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
22Hits16
14Blocked shots13
10Giveaways8
8Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 5.6 xGMIN 2.6 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #950 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.

WSH winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).