Fri, Nov 13, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Islanders 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 37 | 06 | 08 | 14 | 425 |
| CAR | 03 | 214 | 19 | 02 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 5:35NYIMark StreitPPAssists: Bruno Gervais, Richard Park · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 13:41NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Trent Hunter, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–0
- P2 8:52CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Brandon Sutter, Bryan Rodney · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 11:17CARRay WhitneyAssists: Andrew Alberts, Aaron Ward · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 17:29CARTim GleasonAssists: Brandon Sutter, Chad LaRose · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 4:45NYIKyle OkposoGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:54CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 2:54CARTim Gleason: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:33CARAaron Ward: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:17CARJussi Jokinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:17NYISean Bergenheim: Charging2 min
- P1 15:52NYIBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
- P2 8:28NYIFreddy Meyer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:25NYIBlake Comeau: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 13:48CARJussi Jokinen: Holding2 min
- P3 14:01NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Brind'Amour
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).