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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 13, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Calgary Flames 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.

BUF winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY1501206031126
BUF1180306062233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:04CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Nigel Dawes, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:54BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Thomas Vanek · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. BUF Tim Connolly stopped
  2. 2. CGY Nigel Dawes stopped
  3. 3. BUF Derek Roy scored
  4. 4. CGY Olli Jokinen scored
  5. 5. BUF Tyler Myers stopped
  6. 6. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
  7. 7. BUF Jason Pominville scored
  8. 8. CGY Rene Bourque stopped
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 5:02BUFAdam Mair: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:02CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:14CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 11:54BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P1 11:54CGYJarome Iginla: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P1 16:36CGYBrandon Prust: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  7. P2 1:35BUFCraig Rivet: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 4:13BUFJochen Hecht: Interference2 min
  9. P2 7:23BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 12:52CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 17:19BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 17:19CGYDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 6:04BUFCraig Rivet: Boarding2 min
  14. P3 10:16BUFAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 10:16CGYAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
  16. OT 2:29CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYBUF
26Shots on goal33
2.2Expected goals2.9
55Shot attempts56
24Faceoffs won38
4Power plays4
22Penalty minutes22
19Hits25
13Blocked shots11
11Giveaways22
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 2.9 xGCGY 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #810 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.21 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.

BUF winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).