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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 13, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Los Angeles Kings 0, Atlanta Thrashers 7

Away

Los Angeles Kings

0

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

ATL winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK011012015038
ATL084835721

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:22ATLEvander KaneGWGAssists: Marty Reasoner, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:28ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
  3. P2 14:16ATLZach BogosianAssists: Evander Kane, Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P2 15:26ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P3 6:00ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Maxim Afinogenov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–5
  6. P3 12:01ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–6
  7. P3 16:34ATLEvander KaneSHAssists: Rich Peverley · Snap, 0.13 xG0–7
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 19:18ATLEric Boulton: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P2 16:08ATLChristoph Schubert: Cross checking2 min
  3. P2 16:08ATLJim Slater: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 16:08LAKBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 16:08LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 16:08ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 16:08LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 16:08ATLEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 16:08LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 16:08LAKRaitis Ivanans: Game misconduct10 min
  11. P2 16:08ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 16:08ATLChris Thorburn: Game misconduct10 min
  13. P3 5:24LAKMatt Greene: Boarding2 min · PPG
  14. P3 6:59LAKJustin Williams: Elbowing2 min
  15. P3 8:54ATLRon Hainsey: Holding the stick2 min
  16. P3 13:26ATLToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
  17. P3 15:48ATLChristoph Schubert: Boarding2 min
  18. P3 18:01LAKJustin Williams: Checking from behind5 min
  19. P3 18:01LAKJustin Williams: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKATL
38Shots on goal21
2.4Expected goals1.3
66Shot attempts34
33Faceoffs won34
5Power plays3
43Penalty minutes34
9Hits15
9Blocked shots17
3Giveaways11
9Takeaways24

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.3 xGLAK 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1186 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.54 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

ATL winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).