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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 13, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.

CHI winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR01218111231
CHI2201806334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:22CHIPatrick KaneUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:20CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:31CHITroy BrouwerPPGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P2 17:51TORPhil KesselAssists: Jeff Finger, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:33TORPhil KesselAssists: Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 15:40CHIAndrew Ebbett: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 15:40TORNiklas Hagman: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 15:40TORLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 17:13TORGarnet Exelby: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 4:44TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  6. P2 11:52TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 11:52CHITroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 14:16TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 3:23CHITomas Kopecky: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P3 11:17CHIBen Eager: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackCHI attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORCHI
31Shots on goal34
2.7Expected goals4.0
45Shot attempts60
25Faceoffs won36
2Power plays4
15Penalty minutes11
28Hits20
14Blocked shots10
2Giveaways10
3Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 4.0 xGTOR 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHITOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #482 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.93 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.

CHI winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).