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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Calgary Flames 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

Calgary Flames

5

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.

TOR winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY3704211522
TOR110120010240

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:21CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 1:37CGYEric NystromAssists: Dustin Boyd · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P1 5:24TORFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Jason Blake · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P1 9:54CGYDustin BoydGWGAssists: David Moss, Eric Nystrom · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P2 4:41TORMatt StajanPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Francois Beauchemin · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–2
  6. P3 2:30CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Craig Conroy, Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
  7. P3 13:30CGYJay BouwmeesterPPAssists: Nigel Dawes, Rene Bourque · Slap, 0.41 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:27TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:27CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 2:28TORJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 2:28CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 3:32CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 2:50CGYAdam Pardy: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  7. P2 12:12TORJamal Mayers: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 14:22CGYCraig Conroy: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 3:29CGYJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 8:03CGYOlli Jokinen: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 8:03TORFrancois Beauchemin: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 13:04TORRickard Wallin: Interference2 min · PPG
  13. P3 17:03CGYOlli Jokinen: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYTOR
22Shots on goal40
1.3Expected goals2.5
66Shot attempts80
28Faceoffs won35
2Power plays5
25Penalty minutes19
16Hits33
18Blocked shots23
17Giveaways4
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.5 xGCGY 1.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #557 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.27 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.

TOR winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).