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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

New York Rangers 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (SO)

Away

New York Rangers

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.

OTT winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NYR0917010023228
OTT0911708022136

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:29OTTBrian LeeAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Kelly · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:58NYRVinny ProspalSHAssists: Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
  2. 2. OTT Alex Kovalev stopped
  3. 3. NYR Ales Kotalik scored
  4. 4. OTT Daniel Alfredsson scored
  5. 5. NYR Vinny Prospal scored
  6. 6. OTT Jason Spezza scored
  7. 7. NYR Enver Lisin stopped
  8. 8. OTT Jarkko Ruutu stopped
  9. 9. NYR Artem Anisimov stopped
  10. 10. OTT Mike Fisher stopped
  11. 11. NYR Chris Higgins stopped
  12. 12. OTT Nick Foligno stopped
  13. 13. NYR PA Parenteau scored
  14. 14. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 5:40OTTMike Fisher: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 19:35NYRAles Kotalik: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 7:29NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
  4. P2 9:22NYRArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 15:24NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 2:09OTTMike Fisher: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 12:25OTTMatt Carkner: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 14:51OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. OT 3:37NYRAles Kotalik: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Prospal won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYROTT
28Shots on goal36
2.1Expected goals3.0
52Shot attempts74
25Faceoffs won28
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
21Hits26
20Blocked shots20
11Giveaways14
8Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.0 xGNYR 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #666 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.46 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.

OTT winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).