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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Washington Capitals 2, New Jersey Devils 5

Away

Washington Capitals

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.

NJD winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH21101008229
NJD1731016523

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:15WSHTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Brendan Morrison, Mike Green · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:02WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Mike Green, Matt Bradley · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P1 9:47NJDColin WhiteAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:44NJDJamie LangenbrunnerPPAssists: Cory Murphy, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 14:40NJDZach PariseGWGAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:04NJDMatt HalischukAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Tim Sestito · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 3:15NJDCory MurphyAssists: Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 3:23NJDMatt Halischuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P2 5:25WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 11:22WSHAlexander Semin: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P3 6:59WSHShaone Morrisonn: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Perreault
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHNJD
29Shots on goal23
1.8Expected goals1.3
47Shot attempts35
24Faceoffs won25
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
8Hits15
7Blocked shots12
2Giveaways9
3Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.3 xGWSH 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #348 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.

NJD winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).