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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

New York Islanders 4, Florida Panthers 5 (SO)

Away

New York Islanders

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NYI21507213051440
FLA010315112052542

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:16NYITim JackmanAssists: Nate Thompson, Richard Park · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:29NYITrent HunterAssists: Josh Bailey, Jon Sim · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:27FLACory StillmanAssists: Radek Dvorak · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:58FLAStephen WeissAssists: Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 19:33FLARostislav OleszAssists: Dominic Moore, Kamil Kreps · Tip-in, 0.29 xG2–3
  6. P3 3:03FLAMichael FrolikPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
  7. P3 8:27NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
  8. P3 13:14NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Rostislav Olesz stopped
  2. 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
  3. 3. FLA Steve Reinprecht scored
  4. 4. NYI John Tavares stopped
  5. 5. FLA Cory Stillman stopped
  6. 6. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
  7. 7. FLA Nathan Horton scored
  8. 8. NYI Sean Bergenheim stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:12NYIJack Hillen: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:34NYIAndy Sutton: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:54FLADennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
  4. P2 5:19NYIMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 5:24FLARostislav Olesz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 13:31NYISean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 1:49NYIBruno Gervais: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 7:34FLADominic Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 13:11FLAJordan Leopold: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIFLA
40Shots on goal42
3.4Expected goals3.2
56Shot attempts80
31Faceoffs won38
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
22Hits25
21Blocked shots7
4Giveaways7
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.2 xGNYI 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLANYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 93/100 · #65 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.32 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).