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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Boston Bruins 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6 (OT)

Away

Boston Bruins

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.

PIT winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BOS1152821000533
PIT2151112611633

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:42PITJay McKeeAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ruslan Fedotenko · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:29BOSBlake WheelerAssists: David Krejci, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:24PITPascal DupuisAssists: Matt Cooke, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:33BOSMichael RyderAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 9:19PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Alex Goligoski, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P2 15:02BOSDerek MorrisAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mark Recchi · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
  7. P3 9:00PITMark EatonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Ruslan Fedotenko · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
  8. P3 14:13BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–4
  9. P3 17:31BOSMarco SturmAssists: Zdeno Chara, Mark Recchi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:59PITBill GuerinAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.04 xG5–5
  11. OT 1:24PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Martin Skoula · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 6:42PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:42BOSByron Bitz: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:12BOSBrad Marchand: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P1 19:37BOSSteve Begin: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 15:26BOSBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 2:49PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 11:50PITMatt Cooke: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  8. P3 12:34PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Begin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSPIT
33Shots on goal33
3.8Expected goals2.9
73Shot attempts57
34Faceoffs won29
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
14Hits24
11Blocked shots22
5Giveaways8
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.9 xGBOS 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #8 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.53 · 11 goals in reachComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.

PIT winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).