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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Los Angeles Kings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (SO)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.

TBL winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK07011110021230
TBL0801019020129

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 7:20LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Ryan Smyth · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P3 11:39TBLRyan MaloneAssists: David Hale, Steven Stamkos · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
  2. 2. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
  3. 3. LAK Jack Johnson stopped
  4. 4. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
  5. 5. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
  6. 6. TBL Alex Tanguay stopped
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 8:20LAKMichal Handzus: Charging2 min
  2. P1 8:20LAKWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 8:20TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 11:25TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 11:25LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 17:39LAKWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 18:57TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 3:06TBLMattias Ohlund: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 15:41TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
  10. P2 17:52LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 0:25LAKRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 5:41TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min · PPG
  13. P3 5:41LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 5:41TBLZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 5:41LAKWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 6:01TBLLukas Krajicek: Tripping2 min
  17. P3 8:06LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKTBL
30Shots on goal29
2.6Expected goals1.8
59Shot attempts48
29Faceoffs won28
4Power plays5
29Penalty minutes27
22Hits23
12Blocked shots18
8Giveaways8
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 1.8 xGLAK 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #619 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.58 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.

TBL winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).