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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Montréal Canadiens 0, Nashville Predators 2

Away

Montréal Canadiens

0

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 91% of the time.

NSH winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL0406010020
NSH124018113255

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:48NSHSteve SullivanGWGAssists: J-P Dumont · Backhand, 0.42 xG0–1
  2. P3 12:59NSHSteve SullivanPPAssists: Shea Weber, Jason Arnott · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P2 1:15MTLTom Pyatt: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 5:23NSHDavid Legwand: Cross checking2 min
  3. P2 9:25MTLCarey Price: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
  4. P2 14:17MTLRyan White: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 18:52NSHJason Arnott: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P3 12:27MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P3 12:56MTLRyan White: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 15:00MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLNSH
20Shots on goal55
1.4Expected goals4.4
37Shot attempts78
30Faceoffs won35
2Power plays6
12Penalty minutes4
13Hits15
10Blocked shots10
9Giveaways10
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 4.4 xGMTL 1.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 1/100 · #1215 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.64 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 91% of the time.

NSH winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).