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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 15, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Minnesota Wild 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (SO)

Away

Minnesota Wild

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.

CAR winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MIN0631715040432
CAR21021407041535

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:45CARJussi JokinenAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:49CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Bryan Rodney, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:59CARRay WhitneyPPAssists: Brandon Sutter, Joe Corvo · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
  4. P2 8:43MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Brent Burns, Andrew Brunette · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P2 10:08CARBrandon SutterPPAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
  6. P2 13:46MINRobbie EarlAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
  7. P2 14:06MINJohn ScottAssists: Kim Johnsson, Owen Nolan · Backhand, 0.39 xG3–4
  8. P3 2:21MINRobbie EarlUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. CAR Tuomo Ruutu stopped
  2. 2. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
  3. 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen scored
  4. 4. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
  5. 5. CAR Matt Cullen stopped
  6. 6. MIN Marek Zidlicky stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 9:21CARScott Walker: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 15:02CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:42MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:04MINAntti Miettinen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 4:48MINDerek Boogaard: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 5:39MINAndrew Brunette: Holding2 min
  7. P2 9:58MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P2 10:29MINAntti Miettinen: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 6:56CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Belanger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCAR
32Shots on goal35
5.5Expected goals3.9
61Shot attempts59
34Faceoffs won32
3Power plays6
12Penalty minutes6
13Hits20
9Blocked shots12
4Giveaways9
9Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.9 xGMIN 5.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #104 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.71 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.

CAR winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).