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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 15, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Edmonton Oilers 2, Atlanta Thrashers 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM06218012236
ATL15113112330

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:37ATLZach BogosianPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:39EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Steve Staios, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:13EDMDustin PennerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Zack Stortini · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:38ATLMaxim AfinogenovPPAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:59ATLVyacheslav KozlovGWGAssists: Todd White, Rich Peverley · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 2:50EDMSteve Staios: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:20EDMLubomir Visnovsky: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 7:35ATLTodd White: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 15:20ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 18:06ATLToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
  6. P2 17:46EDMEthan Moreau: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 7:59ATLAnssi Salmela: Holding2 min
  8. P3 15:10ATLZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMATL
36Shots on goal30
2.1Expected goals2.2
50Shot attempts48
18Faceoffs won34
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
13Hits11
7Blocked shots6
3Giveaways8
9Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.2 xGEDM 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 58/100 · #521 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.76 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 28% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).