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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 16, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

New York Islanders 4, Boston Bruins 1

Away

New York Islanders

4

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.

BOS winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI171826421
BOS01111008129

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:00NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Jack Hillen, Richard Park · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 14:56BOSDaniel PailleAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:49NYIMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: Richard Park · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:50NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Richard Park · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:11NYITrent HunterENAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 10:18BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 10:18NYITim Jackman: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:45BOSMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
  4. P1 14:45NYIFreddy Meyer: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 15:10NYIJack Hillen: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 0:18BOSDaniel Paille: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 4:03NYIMatt Moulson: Interference2 min
  8. P2 4:37BOSMark Recchi: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 5:18NYISean Bergenheim: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 15:17BOSSteve Begin: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 4:53BOSDavid Krejci: Interference2 min
  12. P3 16:44BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIBOS
21Shots on goal29
3.2Expected goals2.0
40Shot attempts55
18Faceoffs won43
5Power plays4
13Penalty minutes17
20Hits28
15Blocked shots10
2Giveaways4
1Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.0 xGNYI 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #781 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.

BOS winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).