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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 16, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New Jersey Devils 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Away

New Jersey Devils

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

PHI winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD01411219235
PHI11511317335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:11PHIDarroll PoweAssists: Claude Giroux, Arron Asham · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:44PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Mike Richards, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:42NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
  4. P3 10:38PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:59NJDZach PariseAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 14:16PHIMika Pyorala: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 19:53NJDAndy Greene: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 11:07PHIBraydon Coburn: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 13:45PHIJeff Carter: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 15:18PHIMike Richards: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 4:11NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 13:30PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 19:59PHIMike Richards: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 19:59NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Betts won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDPHI
35Shots on goal35
4.1Expected goals4.9
73Shot attempts62
28Faceoffs won30
5Power plays2
6Penalty minutes12
11Hits19
14Blocked shots26
9Giveaways9
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.9 xGNJD 4.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 27/100 · #909 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.88 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.

PHI winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).