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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 16, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Edmonton Oilers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)

Away

Edmonton Oilers

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.

CBJ winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
EDM091419031225
CBJ0911416032332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:08CBJAnton StralmanPPAssists: Kristian Huselius, Fedor Tyutin · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:13EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Sheldon Souray, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:48EDMLubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Sheldon Souray, Shawn Horcoff · Slap, 0.26 xG2–1
  4. P3 12:26CBJAntoine VermettePPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Anton Stralman · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Kristian Huselius stopped
  2. 2. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
  3. 3. CBJ Fedor Tyutin scored
  4. 4. EDM Dustin Penner stopped
  5. 5. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
  6. 6. EDM Ales Hemsky scored
  7. 7. CBJ Jakub Voracek scored
  8. 8. EDM Gilbert Brule stopped
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:41CBJMike Blunden: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:41EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 2:43EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 2:43CBJTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 6:10CBJRick Nash: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 13:01EDMLiam Reddox: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 13:01CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 13:01EDMSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 13:01CBJJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
  10. P1 15:19CBJMike Blunden: Hooking2 min
  11. P1 17:19EDMZack Stortini: Hooking2 min
  12. P2 5:45EDMSteve Staios: Hooking2 min · PPG
  13. P2 6:27EDMEthan Moreau: Tripping2 min
  14. P2 11:26CBJKris Russell: Hooking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 4:31CBJRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min · PPG
  16. P3 9:15CBJJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
  17. P3 11:44EDMLiam Reddox: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Penner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCBJ
25Shots on goal32
2.2Expected goals2.5
48Shot attempts55
24Faceoffs won27
5Power plays4
22Penalty minutes24
26Hits22
11Blocked shots11
3Giveaways3
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.5 xGEDM 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #479 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.82 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 18% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.

CBJ winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).