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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 16, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Anaheim Ducks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Away

Anaheim Ducks

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.

PIT winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA1601019225
PIT2916211526

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:31PITMatt CookeUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:13PITBill GuerinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P1 9:06ANATodd MarchantSHAssists: Corey Perry, Scott Niedermayer · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P2 4:09PITJordan StaalSHGWGAssists: Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:28PITMartin SkoulaAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
  6. P3 17:21ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Nick Boynton, Todd Marchant · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:47PITMatt CookeENAssists: Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 2:10ANAJoffrey Lupul: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 4:26ANABobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  3. P1 7:30ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 12:26PITDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
  5. P2 2:27PITChris Bourque: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 4:27ANASheldon Brookbank: Boarding2 min
  7. P2 13:31PITEric Godard: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 16:15ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 0:57PITBill Guerin: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 0:57ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 6:34ANAGeorge Parros: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 10:37ANAJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nokelainen won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAPIT
25Shots on goal26
2.9Expected goals3.6
50Shot attempts51
22Faceoffs won30
3Power plays7
19Penalty minutes11
20Hits32
10Blocked shots15
7Giveaways5
1Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.6 xGANA 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #588 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.83 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.

PIT winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).