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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 16, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Los Angeles Kings 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK010113210011434
FLA07211110010329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:05FLANathan HortonPPAssists: Keith Ballard, Bryan McCabe · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:40FLACory StillmanAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:10LAKJack JohnsonPPAssists: Randy Jones, Alex Frolov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P3 2:23LAKJarret StollPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:58LAKRandy JonesSHAssists: Michal Handzus · Tip-in, 0.38 xG3–2
  6. P3 14:55FLAVictor OreskovichAssists: Bryan Allen, Cory Stillman · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Rostislav Olesz stopped
  2. 2. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
  3. 3. FLA Steve Reinprecht stopped
  4. 4. LAK Jack Johnson scored
  5. 5. FLA Cory Stillman stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 3:36FLAKeith Ballard: Clipping2 min
  2. P1 0:00FLADominic Moore: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 0:00LAKJack Johnson: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 1:47LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P2 4:13FLAKenndal McArdle: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 6:31FLAKenndal McArdle: Fighting5 min · PPG
  7. P2 6:31LAKWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 7:47FLAKeith Ballard: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 12:10FLAKamil Kreps: Holding the stick2 min
  10. P2 17:36LAKWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 2:01FLARadek Dvorak: Hooking2 min · PPG
  12. P3 6:36LAKAlex Frolov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  13. OT 4:53FLAKeith Ballard: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kreps won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKFLA
34Shots on goal29
2.7Expected goals2.5
59Shot attempts52
29Faceoffs won29
6Power plays3
13Penalty minutes19
25Hits23
12Blocked shots14
3Giveaways7
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.5 xGLAK 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLALAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #122 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.24 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).