Mon, Nov 16, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Phoenix Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 28 | 13 | 18 | 419 |
| PHX | 111 | 013 | 07 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Ryan Malone, Lukas Krajicek · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:44TBLAlex TanguayPPGWGAssists: Ryan Malone, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 19:20PHXAdrian AucoinAssists: Sami Lepisto, Scottie Upshall · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 4:30TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–1
- P3 11:46TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:19PHXVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:36PHXPaul Bissonnette: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:11PHXJim Vandermeer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:25PHXJim Vandermeer: Boarding5 min
- P1 16:25PHXJim Vandermeer: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:43TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
- P2 6:17TBLKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:16PHXSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:06TBLStephane Veilleux: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:15PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:15TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).