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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 17, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.

MTL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CAR0626013070232
MTL15016113011335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:41MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:28CARBrandon SutterAssists: Ray Whitney, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:20CARJussi JokinenAssists: Matt Cullen · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P3 17:14MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Paul Mara, Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Michael Cammalleri stopped
  2. 2. CAR Tuomo Ruutu stopped
  3. 3. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
  4. 4. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
  5. 5. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
  6. 6. CAR Rod Brind'Amour stopped
  7. 7. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
  8. 8. CAR Sergei Samsonov stopped
  9. 9. MTL Guillaume Latendresse stopped
  10. 10. CAR Bryan Rodney stopped
  11. 11. MTL Maxim Lapierre scored
  12. 12. CAR Matt Cullen stopped
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:12MTLPaul Mara: Interference2 min
  2. P1 12:23CARNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 4:03CARMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
  4. P2 4:03MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 9:19CARAaron Ward: Boarding2 min
  6. P2 14:46CARStephane Yelle: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 9:30MTLJosh Gorges: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 14:24MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
  9. OT 3:01MTLJaroslav Spacek: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARMTL
32Shots on goal35
2.8Expected goals2.4
62Shot attempts61
37Faceoffs won30
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes12
24Hits14
15Blocked shots16
9Giveaways14
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.4 xGCAR 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #396 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.90 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 10% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.

MTL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).