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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 17, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 4

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.

NSH winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS1911419332
NSH2142908431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:19NSHSteve SullivanPPAssists: J-P Dumont, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:23SJSScott NicholSHAssists: Jed Ortmeyer, Derek Joslin · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:06NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: David Legwand, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 8:16NSHJoel WardPPAssists: Ryan Suter, David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 10:57NSHDavid LegwandGWGAssists: Joel Ward, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
  6. P2 19:19SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Frazer McLaren, Benn Ferriero · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:08SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Ryane Clowe · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:44SJSLogan Couture: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:51SJSDouglas Murray: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 6:26SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P3 0:36SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P3 1:21NSHJ-P Dumont: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P3 10:58NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Goc
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSNSH
32Shots on goal31
2.4Expected goals2.7
65Shot attempts56
32Faceoffs won31
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
17Hits19
14Blocked shots17
11Giveaways10
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.7 xGSJS 2.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #358 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.

NSH winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).