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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 17, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Colorado Avalanche 3, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.

CGY winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL11021004324
CGY012213011236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:00COLRyan WilsonAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.34 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:39CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Curtis Glencross, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:18CGYRene BourqueSHAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Dustin Boyd · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:00COLCody McLeodAssists: Paul Stastny, Ryan Wilson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 19:06COLMilan HejdukPPGWGAssists: Marek Svatos, Brett Clark · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:21COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
  2. P1 4:23CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:23COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 10:30COLScott Hannan: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 10:30CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 1:10COLDavid Jones: Interference2 min
  7. P2 15:25CGYEric Nystrom: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 18:54CGYRobyn Regehr: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 2:09CGYRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 8:51COLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 19:56CGYRene Bourque: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 19:56COLKyle Quincey: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 19:56CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Boyd
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLCGY
24Shots on goal36
2.6Expected goals2.7
41Shot attempts67
32Faceoffs won19
4Power plays3
18Penalty minutes20
4Hits19
24Blocked shots6
4Giveaways10
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.7 xGCOL 2.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 56/100 · #542 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.69 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.

CGY winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).