Wed, Nov 18, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 15 | 47 | 624 |
| BUF | 17 | 010 | 111 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:23BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 18:21FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Nathan Horton, Keith Ballard · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:21FLAStephen WeissUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 10:50FLACory StillmanGWGAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 14:17BUFClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Craig Rivet · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 17:58FLAMichael FrolikPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Keith Ballard · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 18:12FLARostislav OleszENAssists: Gregory Campbell, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–2
- P3 19:00FLADominic MooreAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.11 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:44BUFCraig Rivet: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:53FLABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:49FLARostislav Olesz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:23BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:51FLADominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:37FLAVictor Oreskovich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:41BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).