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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 18, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Dallas Stars 3, Detroit Red Wings 1

Away

Dallas Stars

3

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.

DET winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL1911617332
DET08111013132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:26DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brad Richards, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:52DALMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 6:16DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Ville Leino, Brett Lebda · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P3 12:43DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: James Neal, Mike Modano · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 8:44DETBrian Rafalski: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:38DETBrad May: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 13:42DALTrevor Daley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 0:55DALMike Ribeiro: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 7:21DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 7:21DETBrad May: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 8:53DALAlex Auld: Delaying game2 min
  8. P2 11:15DALJames Neal: Boarding2 min
  9. P2 13:40DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 19:49DETBrad Stuart: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 19:49DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 2:22DETKris Draper: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 11:50DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Helm
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALDET
32Shots on goal32
1.8Expected goals2.0
54Shot attempts56
23Faceoffs won32
5Power plays4
15Penalty minutes17
30Hits32
12Blocked shots7
6Giveaways11
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.0 xGDAL 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #858 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.

DET winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).