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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 18, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Phoenix Coyotes 3, Minnesota Wild 2

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.

MIN winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX01517210332
MIN05010211226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:24PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: David Schlemko, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P3 2:23MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Antti Miettinen, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P3 8:49PHXJim VandermeerAssists: Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P3 15:02MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:21PHXScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 0:55MINGreg Zanon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 19:51MINOwen Nolan: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:18PHXDavid Schlemko: Interference2 min
  4. P2 19:21PHXScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 3:42PHXSami Lepisto: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Hanzal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXMIN
32Shots on goal26
2.1Expected goals2.3
59Shot attempts52
28Faceoffs won24
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
13Hits20
13Blocked shots14
5Giveaways11
0Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.3 xGPHX 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #246 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.08 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.

MIN winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).