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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 18, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Colorado Avalanche 4, Edmonton Oilers 6

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.

EDM winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL262705418
EDM11121438633

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:26COLMilan HejdukAssists: Tom Preissing, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:39EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ales Hemsky, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.43 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:36COLMilan HejdukAssists: Matt Duchene, Chris Durno · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P2 0:21EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Liam Reddox, Steve Staios · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 1:14COLDavid JonesAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P2 11:04COLKyle CumiskeyAssists: Brett Clark, Darcy Tucker · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
  7. P2 19:44EDMSam GagnerAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
  8. P3 2:45EDMRyan PotulnyPPAssists: Tom Gilbert, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.21 xG4–4
  9. P3 11:07EDMPatrick O'SullivanGWGAssists: Gilbert Brule · Snap, 0.09 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:17EDMAles HemskyENAssists: Jeff Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–6
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 1:34COLBrett Clark: Holding2 min
  2. P1 6:27EDMSteve Staios: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 6:50COLBrett Clark: Holding2 min
  4. P1 10:19COLKyle Cumiskey: Holding2 min
  5. P2 5:48COLChris Durno: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 12:18EDMZack Stortini: Instigator2 min
  7. P2 12:18EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 12:18COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 12:18EDMZack Stortini: Misconduct10 min
  10. P2 13:19EDMSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 15:00EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Tripping2 min
  12. P2 17:20COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 0:55COLKyle Cumiskey: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against O'Sullivan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLEDM
18Shots on goal33
1.8Expected goals3.2
32Shot attempts51
37Faceoffs won24
4Power plays6
17Penalty minutes23
13Hits12
11Blocked shots8
12Giveaways14
7Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.2 xGCOL 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #35 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.28 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.

EDM winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).