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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 19, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Carolina Hurricanes 6 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.

CAR winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TOR3170427040532
CAR011217314032645

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:01TORMatt StajanAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:21TORLee StempniakAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, John Mitchell · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P1 18:26TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jason Blake, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
  4. P2 16:47CARStephane YelleAssists: Chad LaRose, Aaron Ward · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
  5. P2 17:30CARMatt CullenAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P3 3:43TORAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Jonas Gustavsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
  7. P3 8:08CARTim GleasonAssists: Matt Cullen, Tuomo Ruutu · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
  8. P3 11:56CARTim GleasonPPAssists: Brandon Sutter, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
  9. P3 19:30TORIan WhiteAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.07 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:57CARErik ColeAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. CAR Tuomo Ruutu scored
  2. 2. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
  3. 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen scored
  4. 4. TOR Lee Stempniak stopped
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:14TORRickard Wallin: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 4:29CARBryan Rodney: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 0:12CARAndrew Alberts: Elbowing2 min
  4. P2 4:18TORRickard Wallin: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 6:31TORJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 6:31CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 6:46CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 9:18TORIan White: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 3:25CARErik Cole: Fighting5 min · PPG
  10. P3 3:25TORIan White: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 3:25CARErik Cole: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 8:51TORIan White: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  13. P3 14:19TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Grabovski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORCAR
32Shots on goal45
2.7Expected goals4.6
56Shot attempts86
35Faceoffs won37
4Power plays6
22Penalty minutes18
31Hits39
24Blocked shots14
3Giveaways7
3Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 4.6 xGTOR 2.7 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #2 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.24 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +48 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.

CAR winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).